Are you excited about the upside potential of China but can’t pull the trigger because of the significant downside risk? Here is a way to invest in China growth and still sleep at night.

China has been the largest economy in the world for eighteen of the past twenty centuries and it is clearly determined to regain its role as the hegemonic power in Asia and then challenge U.S. global leadership. Will it be able to sustain its 10% economic growth rate, quell rural discontent, build a sound market-based financial system, privatize dominant state-owned enterprises and move towards openness and democracy? This is a tall order and you can put me in the skeptic column.

Nevertheless, China’s raw industrial power, momentum and the palpable ambition of the Chinese people could realistically yield a huge return. I advise my clients to go ahead and invest in China but emphasize that this is a speculative investment. It is smart to protect against the considerable downside risk.

Here is a simple plan you might want to execute to capture the upside while cutting your losses if the Chinese economy hits a speed bump.

First, you could take a broad stake in China through investing in the China iShare exchange-traded fund (FXI) that is comprised of 25 of the largest and most liquid China names. All of the 25 stocks included in the China iShare are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Some of them are incorporated in mainland China (H shares) and some of them are incorporated in Hong Kong (red chips). The China iShare has been picking up steam in the last few months and is up just over 12% so far this year.
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The Time is Right: With the Fed lowering interest rates and setting a good tone to the markets along with earnings season coming up next month, there has never been a better time to learn to read price charts to pinpoint the best entries and exits for your trades.

When you know how to correctly read price and candle patterns you can identify the beginning of the next big wave and the most profitable entry for your trades. The price graph will also give you clues about when that wave is slowing down so you have time to tighten your stops and maximize your returns.

The markets today are providing us with great trading opportunities. The positive reaction to the interest rate news sent stocks skyrocketing, which made for some wonderful trades if you positioned in early. Many of those stocks, however, are due for a pullback. And what a perfect time to be trading because once you learn to identify the typical pullback, or retracement patterns, you can use those to enter trades before the next big run into earnings.

Here’s An Example:

A pattern that we usually see before a stock makes a run into earnings is a rectangle. A rectangle pattern is created when a stock moves up and down in a small range for a short period of time. This type of consolidation is more of a sideways move, during which time the stock doesn’t loose much of its value, but the options do become cheaper as the volatility decreases. An example of a recent rectangle is a trade we did in the two day Technically Speaking Workshop during which we bought calls on Freeport (FCX). This trade was done because the stock had just broken out of a rectangle pattern and, as you will learn in the Technically Speaking Workshop, we teach entering trades on the first or the second day of the move.
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How Much Can You Get by Selling Structured Settlements?

Structured settlements represent a stream of payments, often extending twenty years into the future. If you sell this stream, you cannot expect the buyer to pay you the total of these future payments. In fact, you will get much less, depending on the amounts and years involved. Let us look at how the buyer computes the amount to pay you.

Money Has A Time Value

If you have 10000 dollars in hand now, you could invest it in different ways. If you are a small businessperson, you could use it to improve your publicity efforts and expand your production capacity. These might result in the 10000 dollars doubling in a year’s time.

Or, if you are a stock investor, you could trade in stocks and probably make the 10000 dollars grow into at least 12000 dollars by the end of the year.

More modestly, you could invest in an interest-paying security and earn a 5% interest paid every quarter. That could make the 10000 dollars into 10510 by end of the year.

Another possibility is to invest the money in a training program that provides you with a vocational skill in high demand. You could thus enhance your earning potential and thus earn a return on that investment.

What all the above examples indicate is that money in hand now could earn returns and accumulate into a larger sum by a future date. This is called time value of money.

Future Payments Are Discounted

Considering the time value of money, sums received on future dates are discounted to compute their “present value”, i.e., value now. This is typically done using prevailing interest rate in the market. For example, we found that 10000 dollars invested at 5% interest, paid quarterly, become 10510 dollars at the end of one year.
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When you make an investment – from a simple bank certificate of deposit to a large shopping mall – you are going to be buying from someone whose greatest skill is employing sales closing techniques. Their skill in closing a sale will not include safeguarding your money or earning you any profit. And their number one priority is to make their sales quota to keep their job. It is only your personal education, experience and due diligence that can protect your money from the numerous people on the other side of the table.

It is a dilemma that in order to invest, you’ll be face to face with professionals who do not have your financial interest at stake – but they will all appear to be. Sales people will appear to be on your side right up until the moment you write a check or sign a commitment. Then any problems are yours alone, their verbal promises go up in smoke, they stop returning your phone calls and the fine print suddenly negates the possibility of getting a single dime back from your investment. In my experience, a salesperson’s top priority is never your best financial interest, and you need to realize this no matter how friendly they are or how polished their sales pitch appears. As you walk into a bank or brokerage office, or call a broker, you need to keep in mind that their personal goal is not in alignment with yours. To see past their sales routine, you need specific education, experience with the industry, and, hopefully, a knowledgeable mentor.
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