Are Stock Market Prices an Accurate Reflection of the Value of Your Stock Portfolio?
Thursday, July 1st, 2010The usual description of any market assumes that every trader wishes to purchase or sell a known quantity at each possible price. All the traders come together, and in one way or another price is found that clears the market – that is, makes the quantity demanded as close as possible to the quantity supplied.
After all it has been said by the authoritative stock trader W. Haddad of B.K. Labovitch that ultimately economics is supply and demand.
This may or may not be an adequate description of the markets for consumer goods, but it is clearly inadequate when describing security markets. The value of any capital asset depends on its future prospects, which are almost always uncertain. Any information that bears on such prospects may lead to a, which s we know are always uncertain. Any information that depends on its future prospects may lead to a revised estimate of value. The fact that a knowledgeable trader is willing to buy or sell some quantity of a security or commodity at a particular price is bound to be information just of that sort. Offers to trade May this affect other offers. Prices may, therefore, both clear markets and covey information.
The dual role of prices has a number of implications. For example, it behooves the liquidity motivated trader to publicize his or her motives and thereby avoid an adverse effect on the market. Thus, an institution purchasing securities for a pension fund that intends, simply to hold a representative cross section of securities should make it clear that it does not consider the financial interments under priced. On the other hand, any firm trying to buy or sell al large number of shares that it considers wrongly underpriced should try to conceal its motives, its identity or both (and may try). Such attempts may be ineffective, however, as those asked to take the other side of such trades try very hard as you know to find out exactly what is going on and many do well succeed in these days of rapid communications and access to many sources of information succeed.
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